Comments on: The Ghost in Your Machine http://www.radioopensource.org/the-ghost-in-your-machine/ Christopher Lydon in conversation on arts, ideas and politics Sun, 12 Feb 2012 19:09:22 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Lumière http://www.radioopensource.org/the-ghost-in-your-machine/#comment-85686 Lumière Thu, 08 Mar 2007 18:11:22 +0000 http://www.radioopensource.org/?p=957#comment-85686 wont post on Arendt thread - but here it is for future reference! ….semantics and parsing are perhaps symptoms of a lack of a gestalt understanding of things. Arendt says: thought = deep good = deep This is not to say thought = good Nick says: empathy = wont post on Arendt thread – but here it is for future reference!

….semantics and parsing are perhaps symptoms of a lack of a gestalt understanding of things.

Arendt says:

thought = deep

good = deep

This is not to say thought = good

Nick says:

empathy =

]]> By: Lumière http://www.radioopensource.org/the-ghost-in-your-machine/#comment-85685 Lumière Thu, 08 Mar 2007 18:02:31 +0000 http://www.radioopensource.org/?p=957#comment-85685 Taleb says that investors have an inability to understand probability within the context of time. Tom, 80% chance you get no response.. Taleb says that investors have an inability to understand probability within the context of time.

Tom,

80% chance you get no response..

]]> By: Tom B http://www.radioopensource.org/the-ghost-in-your-machine/#comment-85684 Tom B Thu, 08 Mar 2007 17:45:37 +0000 http://www.radioopensource.org/?p=957#comment-85684 A fable: A successful stockbroker tells half his customers that stock A will go up, and tells the other half that it will go down. He asks ALL of his cutomers to give him the name of three friends if their stock goes up... He repeats this process with stock B, then with stock C, and so on.... He eventually ends up on national television due to his phenomenal success and reputation for bringing in new customers.... Why? Or try this one on a friend and see how long it takes for them to catch on: 'There's a great sale on! You pay double for the first widget -- BUT THE SECOND ONE IS FREE!' This ad actually played and was a success.... A fable: A successful stockbroker tells half his customers that stock A will go up, and tells the other half that it will go down. He asks ALL of his cutomers to give him the name of three friends if their stock goes up… He repeats this process with stock B, then with stock C, and so on…. He eventually ends up on national television due to his phenomenal success and reputation for bringing in new customers…. Why? Or try this one on a friend and see how long it takes for them to catch on: ‘There’s a great sale on! You pay double for the first widget — BUT THE SECOND ONE IS FREE!’ This ad actually played and was a success….

]]> By: Lumière http://www.radioopensource.org/the-ghost-in-your-machine/#comment-85683 Lumière Thu, 08 Mar 2007 17:01:57 +0000 http://www.radioopensource.org/?p=957#comment-85683 In his book, Fooled by Randomness, Taleb mentions ergodicity. Ergodicity, as it relates to stock trading, says that over a longer time frame, everything ‘grades to the mean’. The mean is found by applying linear regression to a stock chart. Re the iPod: this would be an interesting area to look. Is the iPod’s random generator hitting some kind of ‘mean’? Most of what you will hear here falls under the rubric of ‘pattern selection bias’. The best example is when survivors of an airplane accident say they knew it was going to happen. If you are not too distracted when boarding a plane, you will notice the crash thought cross your mind – it is almost unavoidable to have that thought. When there is an accident, you reference that thought and bingo ! you knew it was going to happen. In his book, Fooled by Randomness, Taleb mentions ergodicity.

Ergodicity, as it relates to stock trading, says that over a longer time frame, everything ‘grades to the mean’. The mean is found by applying linear regression to a stock chart.

Re the iPod: this would be an interesting area to look. Is the iPod’s random generator hitting some kind of ‘mean’?

Most of what you will hear here falls under the rubric of ‘pattern selection bias’.

The best example is when survivors of an airplane accident say they knew it was going to happen.

If you are not too distracted when boarding a plane, you will notice the crash thought cross your mind – it is almost unavoidable to have that thought. When there is an accident, you reference that thought and bingo ! you knew it was going to happen.

]]> By: Lumière http://www.radioopensource.org/the-ghost-in-your-machine/#comment-85682 Lumière Thu, 08 Mar 2007 15:46:43 +0000 http://www.radioopensource.org/?p=957#comment-85682 Most every stock has a message board such as Yahoo, Investor Village, Raging Bull, Silicon Investor, etc. The only way to know what a share price will do is to listen to conference calls, build a financial model, and convert that info into a future share price Having done that I can tell you that the information on financial message boards is clueless. Don’t get me wrong, the people who post there are very bright people. Nonetheless, they spend their message board time being fooled by randomness and making up theories regarding a ‘single manipulative entity’. In October 2006, I stopped trading a particular stock. I told many people that the company would miss their earnings estimates at the year end earnings release in 2007 and I told them that the president would be fired. Almost six-months have gone by and now I am getting e-mails from some who listened + sold, and some who listened + didn’t sell – they are congratulating me on making such a prescient call. The bizarre thing: no one has asked me how I knew. fooled by randomness…lol Most every stock has a message board such as Yahoo, Investor Village, Raging Bull, Silicon Investor, etc.

The only way to know what a share price will do is to listen to conference calls, build a financial model, and convert that info into a future share price Having done that I can tell you that the information on financial message boards is clueless.

Don’t get me wrong, the people who post there are very bright people. Nonetheless, they spend their message board time being fooled by randomness and making up theories regarding a ‘single manipulative entity’.

In October 2006, I stopped trading a particular stock. I told many people that the company would miss their earnings estimates at the year end earnings release in 2007 and I told them that the president would be fired.

Almost six-months have gone by and now I am getting e-mails from some who listened + sold, and some who listened + didn’t sell – they are congratulating me on making such a prescient call.

The bizarre thing: no one has asked me how I knew.

fooled by randomness…lol

]]> By: Lumière http://www.radioopensource.org/the-ghost-in-your-machine/#comment-85681 Lumière Thu, 08 Mar 2007 13:29:23 +0000 http://www.radioopensource.org/?p=957#comment-85681 Sure, post spreadsheet. If this doesn’t define an example of apophenia…. ////Six months of logging shuffles later, Ore still hasn’t caught the ghost in his machine. But the hunt has made him even more sure that “shuffle” doesn’t quite mean “random”:\\\ This from the book of Toli re writings: ///….an organizing principle to what were often cacophonous outpourings.\\\ Why not with songs? Here’s an example of the essence of what I do: Girl From Ipanema (Astrid Gilberto version) Blue Pacific Dragonfly Summer See the image? A girl, the beach, summer? Too much symmetry for me so the final sequence looks like this: Girl From Ipanema Blue Pacific Long Slow Distance Dragonfly Summer Why three Michael Franks songs? That is enough and I am ready to move on to another artist/sequence . The sequences are asymmetrical - not all the sequences are pictorial I might have (in the genre rock – American) sequences somewhat chronological. For example: genre rock – American - 60’s - love songs - Jefferson Starship. Also avoid tempo symmetry among sequences as much as possible Each disc is 14 hours long and I mostly don’t remember which sequence is next, but once in the sequence, memory and imagery flow…. Sure, post spreadsheet.

If this doesn’t define an example of apophenia….

////Six months of logging shuffles later, Ore still hasn’t caught the ghost in his machine. But the hunt has made him even more sure that “shuffle” doesn’t quite mean “random”:\\\

This from the book of Toli re writings:

///….an organizing principle to what were often cacophonous outpourings.\\\

Why not with songs?

Here’s an example of the essence of what I do:

Girl From Ipanema (Astrid Gilberto version)

Blue Pacific

Dragonfly Summer

See the image? A girl, the beach, summer?

Too much symmetry for me so the final sequence looks like this:

Girl From Ipanema

Blue Pacific

Long Slow Distance

Dragonfly Summer

Why three Michael Franks songs? That is enough and I am ready to move on to another artist/sequence .

The sequences are asymmetrical – not all the sequences are pictorial I might have (in the genre rock – American) sequences somewhat chronological. For example: genre rock – American – 60’s – love songs – Jefferson Starship.

Also avoid tempo symmetry among sequences as much as possible

Each disc is 14 hours long and I mostly don’t remember which sequence is next, but once in the sequence, memory and imagery flow….

]]> By: Clarence Rosario http://www.radioopensource.org/the-ghost-in-your-machine/#comment-85680 Clarence Rosario Thu, 08 Mar 2007 05:15:07 +0000 http://www.radioopensource.org/?p=957#comment-85680 Koranteng, Lumière: See, the funny thing is this isn't just a *perception* of patterns. There are legitimate streaks, and my logging of shuffled songs shows a disproportionate propensity towards some songs, artists or albums. On an endless timeline, certainly patterns become less meaningful. But in 6 months, the fact that one song is played 4 times while other songs -- that are favorites of mine -- are ignored...perhaps this belies something deeper. Happy to share a boring spreadsheet with anyone who cares to do more data analysis. Koranteng, Lumière: See, the funny thing is this isn’t just a *perception* of patterns. There are legitimate streaks, and my logging of shuffled songs shows a disproportionate propensity towards some songs, artists or albums. On an endless timeline, certainly patterns become less meaningful. But in 6 months, the fact that one song is played 4 times while other songs — that are favorites of mine — are ignored…perhaps this belies something deeper.

Happy to share a boring spreadsheet with anyone who cares to do more data analysis.

]]> By: Lumière http://www.radioopensource.org/the-ghost-in-your-machine/#comment-85679 Lumière Tue, 06 Mar 2007 22:58:00 +0000 http://www.radioopensource.org/?p=957#comment-85679 Koranteng: My discs are superior to randomness b/c they are 'thematic' serendipity arranged chronologically and punctuated with asymmetric tempo changes wish me luck ….I’m starting the book of Toli Koranteng:

My discs are superior to randomness b/c they are ‘thematic’ serendipity arranged chronologically and punctuated with asymmetric tempo changes

wish me luck ….I’m starting the book of Toli

]]> By: Lumière http://www.radioopensource.org/the-ghost-in-your-machine/#comment-85678 Lumière Tue, 06 Mar 2007 22:43:07 +0000 http://www.radioopensource.org/?p=957#comment-85678 Fooled by Randomness is by Nassim Taleb (sp) I’ve read it - excellent insights for stock traders Fooled by Randomness is by Nassim Taleb (sp)

I’ve read it – excellent insights for stock traders

]]> By: Lumi̬re http://www.radioopensource.org/the-ghost-in-your-machine/#comment-85677 Lumi̬re Tue, 06 Mar 2007 22:29:21 +0000 http://www.radioopensource.org/?p=957#comment-85677 Help me - this is definitely the right thread for Apophenia !! Help me Рthis is definitely the right thread for Apophenia !!

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